First, the bullet for the weekend:
- 1 to 3 inches of rain expected to fall
- No mud or debris flows predicted, but still potential at Canyon Crest Bridge and Milllard Creek.
- Chaney Trail gate and Millard Canyon Campground are closed.
- Snow levels as low as 1,000 ft. Friday night/early Saturday
- Mountain travel may be hazardous today, both afoot an in your car. In addition to snow, high winds with gusts to 50 mph.
- Thunderstorms, waterspouts, and hail are all possible (locusts and rain of frogs less so)
- Be prepared, drive carefully.
Thanks to Carolyn Seitz, who sent us the county forecast, after the jump:
The Los Angeles County is providing the following forecast:
RAINFALL
The current estimate is for 1 to 3 inches of rain to fall in the foothill areas between noon Friday and noon Saturday.
MUD & DEBRIS FLOWS AND FLOOD POTENTIAL
All of the debris basins have available capacity and no mud or debris flows are anticipated for our area. There is still a potential for debris flows to create issues at the Canyon Crest bridge or for Millard Creek. Please exercise caution when driving on or around the Canyon Crest bridge.
ROAD CLOSURES
As is typical for major storm events, some road closures are already in force. That includes Angeles Crest Highway, Angeles Forest Highway to Aliso Canyon.
The Forest Supervisor for Angeles National Forest often announces closure of Chaney Trail at the gate, and closure of Millard Canyon Campground.
The National Weather Service has issued a Special Weather Statement which also indicates that snow levels for our area will likely be 4,000 to 5,000 feet, with 1 to 2 feet of snow anticipated when the snowfall on Friday afternoon, but is likely to drop to as low as 1,000 feet for our part of the foothills Friday night and early Saturday.
They are indicating that additional roadways may be impacted, including I-5 through the Gorman area, Cajon Pass, SR-14 through the Antelope Valley, Soledad Canyon in the Acton area, and other mountain roadways because of the potential for snowfall a lower elevations.
High winds with gusts to 50 mph may occur as well as thunderstorms, waterspouts and hail. Stay safe and drive carefully!
Here's the text of the Special Weather Alert
. . . SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 243 PM PST THU FEB 24 2011 CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-260200- SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST- SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY- SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY- SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST- LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES- VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS- SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA- SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS- VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS- LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE- ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY- LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY- LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY- 243 PM PST THU FEB 24 2011
...A VERY COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... A VERY COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM CANADA IS MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...AND WILL BRING RAIN AND LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN...WITH SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 4000 FEET...TO SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES STARTING FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH IN VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THOSE COUNTIES AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
...A VERY COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE POST-FRONTAL STORMS COULD BRING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND WATERSPOUTS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS.
THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AND STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOW SNOW LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...WHEN SNOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 4000 TO 5000 FEET. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL RAPIDLY...AS LOW AS 500 FEET NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AND 1000 FEET SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
PRELIMINARY SNOW ESTIMATES WITH THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM ARE 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET...WITH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FLOOR...SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. IN ADDITION...MANY FOOTHILL AND HIGHER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE AT RISK FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY THOSE COMMUNITIES NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY CREATING BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. SNOW AND ICY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MANY OF OUR MAJOR MOUNTAIN ROADWAYS...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 5 FROM THE GRAPEVINE TO SANTA CLARITA...AS WELL AS HIGHWAY 14 FROM SANTA CLARITA VALLEY TO THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...INCLUDING THE SOLEDAD CANYON. DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LOW SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED...SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATION ROADWAYS THAT ARE ESPECIALLY AT RISK FOR SNOW INCLUDE HIGHWAY 101 (ESPECIALLY NEAR CUESTA PASS)...HIGHWAY 154...HIGHWAYS 41 AND 46 IN SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...AS WELL AS HIGHWAYS 126 AND 118 IN VENTURA COUNTY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME OF THE LOWEST SNOW LEVELS WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT TIMES. WITH SUCH LOW SNOW LEVELS POSSIBLE...THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM COULD BE DEADLY FOR UNPREPARED MOTORISTS...CAMPERS OR HIKERS. ANYONE PLANNING TO TRAVEL INTO THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER STORM CONDITIONS WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. REMEMBER TO ALWAYS CARRY AN EMERGENCY KIT IN YOUR CAR IN CASE YOU ENCOUNTER HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AS THIS UNUSUALLY COLD WINTER STORM APPROACHES THE SOUTHLAND.
